Tuir planu strateziku dezenvolvimentu 2011-2030 TL hasai ona vizaun konaba dezenvolvimentu setor petrolifera. Tuir studu Timor-Leste ninia potensia total Petroleum Initial in Place (PIIP) pur volta 12.6-45 Bilioens Barrels Oleo Ekivalente (BOE). Kompanya minarai nasional Timor Gap (TG) halo ona estimasaun katak rekursus ne’e bele rekuperáveis, mak 6.3 Bilioens Barrels Oleo Ekivalente (BOE) US$378 Bilioens.
Se uza kustu pur barril bele atinje to’o US$ 35 Billioens, entaun presiza gastus ba atividades oi-oin iha enjenharia, fabrikasoens, “services” hahu husi fabrikas kiik to’o bót, konstrusaun, operasaun, manutensaun, explorasaun no sst, bele konsume fundu to’o valor US$220 Billioens. Husi dadus refere fo certeza boot ba TL hodi dezenvolve seitor petroliferu nunee sustentabiliza fundu petroliferu ate futuru jerasaun (Timor Gap, EP 2019).
Timor Leste nia Fundu Petroleum agora dadaun pur volta US$17 billioens e tal, receitas nee mai husi rezultadu produsaun faan mina no gas iha Tasi Timor, kampu Bayu Undan no ect. TL sei iha potensia petroleum seluk nebee lokaliza iha tasi laran (Offshore) no rai maran (Onshore). Potensia petroleum iha offshore mak hanesan kampu Greater Sunrise (GS) potensia gas 6.7 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) reserva rekuperavel no 280 milhoens de barrels condensate (MMBBls) (Fontes Informasaun: Timor Gap E.P).
Potensia petroleum seluk nebee mak deskoberta ona mak hanesan kampu Jahal, Kuda Tasi, Squilla no Krill lokaliza iha Block 11-106, opera husi kompanya Eni, INPEX no TIMOR GAP. Inklui liu 65% área ne’ebé mamuk, prospetus no deskoberta ona hanesan kampu gas Kelp Deep 13 TCF, Chuditch 0.75 Tcf, sst, lokaliza iha ex-JPDA. Tuir kontratu fahe produsaun ou production sharing contract (PSC) iha área Esklusiva (Eni, Galp and KOGAS halo hela explorasaun).
Iha área Exklusiva, 85% sei mamuk, katak seidauk iha lisensa de explorasaun. Enkuantu iha Timor Gap onshore block (bloku rai maran); Block A (PSC TL-OT-17-08), B, and C (PSC TL-OT-17-09). TL nia potensia Petroleum iha rai maran mak: Aimaulin Seep, Horba Seep, Holmesel Seep, Lour Seep, Aisaleuk Seep, Atalele Seep, Aliambata Seep no Badulobo Seep. Fatin sira nee konsidera potensia ou prospetu ba petroleum ou konsidera nudar gas natural nebee suli husi rai okos sai mai rai leten ou bain-bain hanaran gas seep.
Fatin sira nee identifika liu husi SURVEI AÉREO GEOFÍSIKA, nebee kompostu husi estudu Aero Magnetic and Radiometric; atu deteta fatuk nia Magnetismu no Radioactive, Aero Gravity: atu deteta densidade husi fatuk no Survei Aéreo Geofísika mais detalhadu (Magneto Telluric no Electromagnetic (EM)) (Fontes Informasaun: Timor Gap E.P). Hare ba potensia petroleum nebee lokaliza iha area TL, nunee estadu iha obrigasaun tenke investe makas iha area petroleum hodi dezenvolve nunee bele fo benefisiu sosiu-ekonomiku ba povu Timor-Leste.
Rezultadu hatudu Governu TL investa ona pur volta US$1 billioens e tal ba infraestruktura mega projeitu Tasi Mane, nebee kompostu husi Auto Estrada Suai-Beasu, Suai Supply Base, Petrokimika Betano no Planta LNG Beasu. Investimentu refere nudar pre-kondisaun hodi produs potensia petroleum iha TL. Suai Supply Base (SSB) signifika fatin lojistiku atu fó apoiu ba atividades petróleo hotu nebee opera iha teritoriu TL tantu iha Raimaran no Tasi-laran, no mos iha rejiaun Tasi Timor tomak.
Tuir planu SSB nebee sei konstrui inklui portu ida ho kle’an to’o 9 metrus, ne’ebé iha portus atrakajen; sei iha mos muru-protesaun, ka “kebramar”, ho naruk liu kilometru 3; sei iha mos “mini-shore bases”, no fatin armazém, ‘yard’ no ‘open area’, ho luan to’o 1000 hectares, hodi bele uza ba industrias, fabrikasoens, no servisus ne’ebé kait ho petroleo hanesan perfurasoens, ‘fuel bunkering, catering, waste management, pipe threading and repairing, storage and warehousing, wirelines, drilling mud services, seismic and drilling services, supply vessels, tug boats, compressors & pumps repairs, spare parts supplies, emergency & oil spill response services’, supply services, cargo loading/unloading, cargo lifters, fuel supply, inspection area, no sst (Fontes Informasaun: Timor Gap E.P).
Stratezia dezenvolvimentu industria mina no gas iha TL sei fahe ba parte tolu; upstream, midstream no downstream. Saida mak upstream?, upstream mak aktividade nebee asosia ho explorasaun no produsaun mina no gas ou bain-bain hanaran aktividade nebee ligadu ho buka no deskoberta mina no gas, halo perfurasaun ate to’o foti mina no gas husi tasi/rai okos.
Midstream mak aktividade nebee liga husi upstream ba downstream. Aktividade midstream involve transportasaun, pipeline, tanker mina no gas, no ect. Enkuantu downstream mak aktividades nebee ligadu ho prosesu likifikasaun ou prosesamentu mina no gas molok faan ba merkadu. Aktividades downstream involve planta LNG, refinaria, industria petrokimika no marketing.
Downstream rasik iha ninian komponente 3 hanesan: 1). Marine Facilities (Nebe ita rona no hatene katak TG asina ona Acordo Comercia/Commercial agreement ba EPC + Finance ho CCECC (China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation) iha 26 Abril 2019, hodi hari fasilidade marinha iha Beaco ho Montante: $943 M; Contrato mos iha condisoes nebe presija parseira tenke kompleta, liu husi aprovacoes nesesario. 2). Pipeline: Agora dadaun Timor Gap halo hela negosiasaun ou diskusaun intensivu ho Parte Kompania EUROPIPE husi Alemanha nebe mak fabrika kadoras tuir spesifiksaun nebe ass hodi uza ba kampu GS no Kompania Allseas nebe mak iha Ro’o boot naran Herema hodi Instala kadoras husi Kampu GS ba iha Beaco, hodi sira mos bele fornese EPC + Finance (acordo comercial), 3). Planta LNG.
Oinsa ho kondisaun TL sobre futuru dezenvolvimentu kampu greater sunrise?. Tuir informasaun husi Timor Gap nudar national oil company (NOC) investimentu ba upstream, midstream no downstream kustu purvolta $10.5 billioens to’o $12 billioens dollars. Iha parte seluk, kompanya operador Woodside ho joint venture Osaka deklara ona sira sei la investa iha parte downstream. Nunee TL via Timor Gap mak sei investa fundu 100% ba parte downstream. Perguntas mak nee, fundu investimentu husi nebee?. Enkuantu TL nia fundu petrolifera (FP) nebee rai iha Banku Federal U.S. hela deit ona pur volta $US17 e tal billioens dollars, nunee Timor Gap (TG) sei evita no la uja FP hodi halo investimentu.
Tamba nee, dalang diak liu tuir pratika normativa industria minarai, investimentu bele halo husi TG ho nia partnership sein uja fundu petroleum. Partnership mak sei investa engineering, procurement and construction (EPC ou EPC plus finance). EPC plus finance signifika kompanya mak sei investa osan no konstrui projeitu intermu investimentu iha pipeline, marine no surface facilities ou planta LNG.
TG ho nia parseria bele halo imprestimu (debe ou loan) hodi halo investimentu no sira sei rekopera fali osan wainhira hahu halo produsaun ba kampu Greater Sunrise ho potensia rezerva gas 7.7 tcf (trillion cubic feet) no mina 300 MMbbls kondensadu no LPG. Kompanya sei rekopera osan via profit share, cost recovery (CR), internal rate of return (IRR), payback, ho instrumentus fiskal seluk. Ho ida nee, TG tenke servisu makas halo negosiasaun no buka partnership ou international oil company (IOC) hodi investa iha parte downstream. TG ho kompanya EPC bele investa iha parte downstream hodi lori pipeline mai TL no asegura receitas 100% mai TL.
Presija intende iha industria minarai kompanya atu suporta ou dezenvolve seitor mina no gas fahe ba parte tolu mak: kompanya owner, kompanya service ho kompanya EPC. EPC mak kompanya nebee sei sai parseria ho kompanya owner ou Timor Gap. EPC mak kompanya nebee sei investa fundu ba downstream intermu; prepara, stimula no dezeinu planta LNG ate to'o konstrusaun planta LNG ou fasilidades likifikasaun gas natural.
Enkuantu kompanya owner bain-bain prepara rai ou fatin ou rekursu hodi harii fasilidades prosesamentu mina no gas. Kompanya owner mak kompanya nebee nain ba rekursu mina no gas. Kompanya refere sei partisipa direita hodi halo explorasaun no produsaun ba mina no gas. Kompanya service mak kompanya nebee sei responsabilija ba perfurasaun mina no gas. Kompanya service performansia diak, kualifikadu, ou indentiku ho teknolojia sophistikadu nunee tulun asegura sucessu ba projeitu, mitiga risku, hahu husi buka mina to'o hetan mina ou foti mina no gas husi tasi/rai okos. Kompanya service mak hanesan Baker hughes, Schlumberger, Halliburton, Elnusa, FMC, no ect.
Profit indikator nebee bain-bain uja iha industria minarai hodi atrai kompanya owner, service ho EPC halo investimentu mak; net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), benefit cost ratio (B/C), no payback of time (POT). Kompanya sempre investa wainhira valor IRR boot liu minimum actractive of return (MARR). Analizasaun project economics nudar sasukat ba companya operador, joint venture no host country foti desijaun ba dezenvolvimentu projeitu kampu GS. Komersialidade kampu greater sunrise depende ba demanda gas iha merkadu (buyer), presu (price) no rezerva mina no gas (reserve).
Tuir regime espesial foun iha kampu greater sunrise preve katak pipeline gas mai TL sei fahe rendimentu 70% mai TL no 30% ba Australia. Redimentu nebee TL sei hetan wainhira hahu halo produsaun kampu greater sunrise mak husi royalty 10% (5% ba governu no 5% ba kompanya). Husi 5% ba governu sei fahe tutan ba governu TL no Australia ho percentajem 70%:30%. Enkuantu 5% seluk ba kontraktores. Rendimentu seluk TL sei hetan husi investimentu kustu capital.
Kustu kapital mak tuir kontratu hare liu ba kustu peskijas hotu nebee hahu husi explorasaun geolojia, seismiku, ou buka minarai no gas husi inisiu to'o hetan petroleum ou deskobre mina no gas. Kustu kapital tuir maneira kontratu nebee iha kuandu wainhira kompanya investa osan ona hodi buka mina no gas, estadu tenke selu 100% hafoin aumenta tan 127% hanesan kreditu investimentu (investment credit ou IC).
Nee maneira kontratu uja hodi atrai ekonomikamente ba IOC sira hodi halo investementu iha ita nia rai. Ho partisipasaun 56.56% TL nia iha dezenvolvimentu kampu GS, signifika TL mos sei benefisia husi instrumentu IC 100 + 127%. Karik TG ho kompanya EPC mak investa iha downstream, entaun konserteja 100% receitas mai TL. Fahe lukru iha kampu GS tuir kontratu sei fahe 50% ba governu (husi 50% nee sei fahe 70% ba TL no 30% ba Australia) no 50% seluk ba kontraktores. Kontratu fahe rezultadu sei aplika mos ba produsaun produtu liquidu no gas iha kampu GS.
Investimentu ba downstream ou fasilidade planta LNG nebee sei harii iha beasu laos deit produs ou likifika gas husi kampu greater sunrise (GS) ho potensia rezervatoriu 7.7 tcf (trillion cubic feet), maibe mos sei produs kampu seluk lokaliza iha tasi Timor identifikadu ho rezervatoriu gas mak kampu gas Chuditch ho rezerva 0.7 tcf, kampu gas Kelp Deep ho estimasaun rezerva 8.4–13.6 tcf, no potensia gas em jeral iha teritoriu TL (Fontes informasaun: ANPM).
Tuir informasaun husi Timor Gas ep., Eng. Francisco Monteiro, potensia mina TL emjeral inklui kampu greater sunrise ho potensia mina equivalente 6,3 billioens barel petroleum nebee bele produs to’o 50 anos ho valor osan $378 billioens dollars. Potensia nee bele reprezenta fundu explorasaun nebee sei konsume $ 223 billioens dollars ba nesesidades sira hanesan kestaun teknika, dezenvolvimentu, manutensaun, operasaun no benefisiu fiskal no rendimentu publiku liu $47 billioens dollars (Fontes informasaun; Timor Gap ep., Eng. Francisco Monteiro deklarasaun iha noticias sapo.tl, edisaun 18 Abril 2019, horas 19:12).
Tuir informasaun husi Timor Gap E. P., Cronograma dezenvolvimentu kampu Greater Sunrise: 1). Upstream: Garantindo parceiros-chave e financiamento (2019–2020); Aprovação do Conceito Desenvolvimento e de PSC (2019; Aprovação do plano de desenvolvimento e FID: Meados (2019–Meados 2020); no Desenvolvimento de Instalações de Produção Offshore (2021–2025). 2). Downstream: Garantindo parceiros-chave e financiamento (2019–2020); Fasilidade Marinha (2021–2024); Pipeline/Kadoras (2022–2024); no Planta LNG (2021–2025).
Returno Economico husi dezenvolvimentu kampu Greater Sunrise: 1). Retornu Upstream (Acc: Cashflow: $US12 Billioens Dollars, NPV 10%: $US1.6 Billioens, IRR: 16% no Payback: 2030). 2). Retornu Downstream (Acc: Cashflow: $US14 Billioens, NPV: 10%: $0.3 Billioens, IRR: 10.7% no Payback: 2031). Intermu fahe Receita ba Governo TL no AUS: (Base Case) Total $US16.5 Billioens (TL $12 Billioens no AUS $4.5 Billioens).
Receita ba TL no Timor Gap wainhira partisipa iha Dezenvolvimentu kampu GS mak receitas total: $28 Billioens (TL hetan receitas total $12 Billioens no Timor Gap simu receitas pur volta $16 Billioens) (Fontes Informasaun: Timor Gap E.P). Benefisiu adisional hosi investimentu downstream ou planta LNG no refinaria mak uja fasilidades refere, laos deit likifika gas ou produs mina husi rai laran, maibe mos bele importa mina no gas hosi nasaun seluk hodi halo prosesamentu molok hodi ba merkadu.
Ho partisipasaun TL via Timor Gap iha kampu greater sunrise sei hetan benefisiu dobru liu tan ba receitas TL. Rendimentu ba governu TL sei mai husi royalty, lukru, impostu, no reimbolsa ba kustu capital, domestic market obligation (DMO) no ect. Enkuantu kompanya operador ho joint venture sei hetan benefisiu husi profit share, cost recovery (CR), internal rate of return (IRR), no instrumentus fiskal seluk.
Ikus mai TL mak maioria sei benefisia entermu de fahe rezultadu ou rendimentu, royalty, impostu, reimbolsa kustu kapital 100 + 127%, fornesementu bem servisu 90% sei mai hosi TL ou sujeita liu husi TL, fornesementu equipamentus no apoiu lojistika, karantina sei liu hosi TL, ikus mai TLNG sei tulun diversifika rendimentu ba estadu, hamosu multiplier effect boot ba ekonomia nasaun, transfer teknolojia, konhesementu, no skills ba jovem no foin sae sira, hamoris investimentu seitor privadu, hamoris investimentu iha area turismu, edukasaun, saude, peskas, agrikultura, hotelaria, infrastruktura, emprendedorismu, no ect. Ikus mai TL 90% sai benefisiariu, liu-liu expanda TL nia ekonomia sai independente no berdikari wainhira pipeline gas mai TL. God bless TL. (Hosi: Teodoro M. Mota)
